Post Context

GAO's July 23, 2026 review (GAO-26-109074) confirms the IRS issued $296 billion in refunds by the end of the 2026 filing season, up $43 billion, or 17%, from $253 billion in 2025. For comparison, the total refunded rose just 1.1% between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. GAO attributes the increase to new deductions for tips and overtime pay under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, applied retroactively to January 1, 2025.

GAO's figure is not broken down by income. Separate modeling of OBBBA's overall tax provisions, from the Tax Policy Center's June 2026 analysis, gives the following by income quintile for 2026:

• Bottom 20% (under ~$35,000): average tax cut of about $150
• Top 20% (over ~$200,000): average tax cut of about $12,000
• Top 5% (over ~$460,000): about a third of the law's total tax-cut benefit
• Top 0.1% (over ~$5 million): average tax cut of about $300,000

By share of the total tax cut, TPC finds the top 20% of households receive about 60% and the bottom 20% receive about 1.5%. TPC and the Tax Foundation both estimate the tips, overtime, and senior deductions account for roughly a tenth of OBBBA's total tax cuts; most of the law's benefit comes from lower rates and the larger standard deduction.

• GAO-26-109074 report
• TPC: The 2025 Tax Bill Was Not Targeted Toward Low-Income Families